FOXBOROUGH — Sometimes, football isn’t that complicated.
In games where the 2026 Patriots have forced at least one turnover, they’re 4-1. In games where they haven’t, they’re 0-2. Of course, it’s not the only reason for their losses, but it’s hardly coincidental.
It’s important to note there’s an element of randomness to takeaways — bad bounces, poor execution, etc. Averaging one a game is respectable. But for a defense that put turnovers at the top of its priority list during training camp, it’s been a relatively underwhelming start to the season.
Through seven games, the Patriots’ defense has forced just seven takeaways, including one in the last two games combined.
“You could put some of that on me, as far as the calls,” defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr said Thursday of the dip. “I’m pretty sure in the league [we play] the second-most man coverage. And it’s harder — it’s a lot harder — to ask those seven guys in the back end to go take the ball away when their No. 1 rule is, ‘Hey, my man doesn’t catch the ball.’ Their eyes are on their man. Not on the quarterback.”
In the moments after last Thursday’s 30-24 loss to the Bears — a game where the Patriots’ defense didn’t have a turnover — coach Mike Vrabel was blunt in saying the defense needed to do a better job of forcing takeaways.
It’s a message that’s resonated in the locker room.
“We always talk about trying to get takeaways, but then again, you’ve got to do it within the scheme,” said cornerback Marcus Jones. “There are going to be times when you can [get takeaways], and sometimes it’s going to be difficult. But we always talk about punching at the ball, making sure we do those things.”
The Patriots recovered a pair of opposing fumbles in their last four games — one each against the Bills and Raiders. Additionally, they’ve had two interceptions in that same stretch (Bills, Jets). The Patriots were close to making an interception late against the Bears, but a Caleb Williams pass sailed right through the arms of safety Kevin Byard.
Close isn’t good enough, given the narrow margin for error that exists each week.
“For sure, we’ve missed a few opportunities that we would love to have,” Kuhr said. “But yeah, you could say that we’re close to it.”
Moving forward, two things could play in the Patriots’ favor Sunday against the Dolphins: First, their starting secondary is set to play as a group for the first time since the opener against the Seahawks.
“Excited for that, to get back on the field with all of them,” said cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
“It’s going to be great, having all the guys back,” said cornerback Carlton Davis, who’s missed the last three games because of a neck issue. “Being at full power. Being able to go out there and feed off each other and make plays together.”
And second, Vrabel worked with Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis in the first two seasons of his career with the Titans. Vrabel is likely better prepared than most when it comes to knowing what makes Willis uncomfortable.
“Malik’s continued to develop, and that’s the thing that I’m proud of him for,” Vrabel said of Willis, who has thrown four interceptions this season. “I know that he should be proud of himself to continue to battle and go to Green Bay. I try to stay in communication with him, tell him congrats and that I’m happy for him, and then he gets a deal in Miami.”
Takeaways traditionally come in bunches. Last season, after a three-game run with only two takeaways, the Patriots had a four-game October stretch where the defense forced eight. Could the 2026 Patriots be on the verge of a similar breakthrough?
It sounds like the fix isn’t complicated.
“Just finding out within the plays and the scheme what we’re doing, and just try to create those takeaways,” Byard said. “They haven’t been there right now, but I don’t think us as a team or players need to start pressing, gambling . . . You know what I mean? Playing outside the scheme to get those turnovers. But it’s something that we have to do.
“[We’ve had] a ton of opportunities,” he added. “When we do get those opportunities, we just have to take advantage of those.”
Christopher Price can be reached at christopher.price@globe.com. Follow him on Bluesky at christopherprice.bsky.social.