WASHINGTON — Early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm election, with millions more Americans casting ballots in advance and particularly sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races, according to an Associated Press analysis of voting data five days before Election Day.
The surge is especially pronounced in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House, and governor’s races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50 percent increase.
Advance voting has also increased more than 30 percent from the same point four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas, states with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham, early voting is up 83 percent .
The data, compiled by the AP, offers a glimpse of early voter participation five days before an election that will determine control of Congress and other key contests.
Across the country, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. The figures cover 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states and the nation’s capital four years ago.
In states that provide information on voters’ party affiliation, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have cast ballots early. Those figures do not account for all early voters nationwide or indicate which candidates received their votes.
The increase comes as voters prepare to decide control of Congress two years into President Trump’s second term, with Republicans holding the House and the Senate.
Voters have turned out in droves during Texas’ two-week early in-person voting period, which ends Friday.
In Harris County, which includes Houston, 862,700 people had voted as of Wednesday, compared with 564,500 at the same point in 2022.
The surge comes in a county that has reliably voted Democratic in recent elections, though by varying margins. In 2024, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump by nearly 6 percentage points in the presidential contest, while Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred carried the county by roughly 11 percentage points over Republican US Senator Ted Cruz.
This year, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a closely watched Senate race, while Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have poured into the Senate race as Republicans fight to defend a state where Democrats have not won a statewide election in more than three decades. Trump visited Texas earlier this week, his third trip to the state in a month.
Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority in a midterm election in which the battleground map has expanded significantly, with Democrats hoping to pull off upsets in states that have long favored Republicans.
In South Carolina, where Trump won by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024, early voting has surged 83 percent compared with the same point in 2022. The state has open races for governor and Senate this year.
In Kansas, where Republican US Senator Roger Marshall faces Democratic Methodist megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton, early voting has increased 34 percent, with roughly 83,000 more ballots cast than at the same point four years ago.
Michigan and Maine, both of which have closely watched Senate races, are also seeing increases.
In Maine, where Republican US Senator Susan Collins faces Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson, early voting is up 44 percent. Michigan has recorded roughly 409,000 more early votes than at the same point in 2022, a 32 percent increase.
Voters in Michigan approved early in-person voting in November 2022, making this the first midterm election in which it is available statewide.