OK, political junkies and policy wonks, everyday men and women of America, and all the ships at sea: The kickoff event of the Democratic primary summer season is upon us.
In any other year, I’d say the junkies and the wonks are the only ones likely to tune in on two early summer nights more than seven months before the first primary season votes are cast, but this year is different. Expect a big audience as Democrats try to sort through their Brady Bunch bunny brood of candidates.
Herewith, my guide to what to look for — and what to watch out for.
In round one, on Wednesday night, Elizabeth Warren should command the stage. She’s the Sirius hopeful in a campaign sky of lesser, fainter, or fading stars, both the most substantive candidate and the liberal with momentum. An accomplished debater, she has an opportunity to pitch her plenitude of progressive plans to the nation. (One small suggestion: Senator, learn from Bruce Babbitt’s first, 1988-cycle-debate mistake, and don’t use your head as a punctuation point or a rhetorical force-multiplier. Poor noggin-bobbing Bruce was described by one wag as “Ichabod Crane with a case of the DTs,” and though that was highly uncharitable, it does go to support the point that mannerist mannerism can easily overwhelm one’s message.)
My big first-night question: Will one of the more moderate candidates — think, in particular, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, or Cory Booker — create a debate moment by drawing a meaningful distinction with Warren? Here, meanwhile, is a query that will stretch over both evenings: Who can best claim the increasingly urgent issue of climate change as his or her own?
Come Thursday, you can bet that several of the onstage aspirants will try to command coverage by contrasting him or herself with front-runner Joe Biden. So far, efforts there have been a little tinny. Take, for example, Cory Booker’s attempt to grab some headlines over Biden’s account of working civilly with two Southern Democratic segregationists who were in positions of power when Biden was a junior senator. Yes, his language — “He never called me ‘boy,’ he always called me ‘son’ ” — was awkward, but one has to consider intent. Biden obviously wasn’t trying to demean African-Americans. Nor is it an extraordinary thing for someone of his vintage to have been on civil terms with Senate racists; a senator in that era couldn’t simply ignore powerful elected officials from other states, no matter how odious their views.
Conversely, Biden needs to offer a rationale for his candidacy that goes beyond electability. That’s obviously his Trump card, but the former VP would be well-served to move out of cautious front-runner mode and offer a crisp explanation of his presidential priorities.
When it comes to issues, keep your eyes — well, ears — on Medicare for All. What does it really mean? For Bernie Sanders, it means that the federal government would set medical rates and pay hospitals and doctors. Insurance companies, premiums, and current plans would be gone. The government would run health care, and coverage would be more generous. But taxes would be higher as well, and very probably for the middle class as well as the wealthy.
Do other candidates who mouth the “Medicare for All” mantra mean the same thing as Sanders? Kirsten Gillibrand appears to, but most seem to be playing the artful dodger. So whether you think single-payer is a silver bullet or a mega-boondoggle, listen carefully. If a candidate is talking about lowering the age for Medicare eligibility or adding a public option to the Affordable Care Act, they probably aren’t for a Sanders-esque single-payer system, except, um, aspirationally, which means, somewhere over the rainbow.
Will Sanders, who is hearing Warren’s footsteps, call them out? Or will he be content to pretend he’s the agenda-setter on health care — and instead highlight his effort to outbid rivals on the relieve-college-debt front?
That’s my pre-debate take. If you tune in, let me know what you think.
Scot Lehigh can be reached at lehigh@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @GlobeScotLehigh.