An already speculative exercise becomes even more uncertain on Day 3 of the major league baseball draft, which spans Rounds 11-40.
There can be diamonds in the rough — players with tools but not much of a profile who represent intriguing wild cards. In 2013, the Red Sox took Mauricio Dubon, a shortstop who grew up in Honduras before coming to the United States as a high school junior to pursue a baseball career. He since has blossomed into a legitimate prospect, one of eight members of the Single A Greenville Drive who made this year’s South Atlantic League All-Star Game.
There will be plenty of names on Day 3 who are interesting now but may not sign. There will be plenty of names that are unknown now but will become interesting in future years. The impact of big leaguers taken on the final day is less, but one late-round selection who flourishes as a pro can make a draft.
We’ll offer basic information on each of the players the Sox take throughout Day 3, with expanded profiles on particularly interesting names.
Pitchers
Kevin Kelleher, RHP, University of New Orleans
Round: 12
Height: 6-3
Weight: 245
2015 stats: 2-9, 3.98 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9
Briefly: Kelleher mostly worked out of the bullpen for UNO after transferring from Weatherford Junior College, but he did make some late-season starts, including one where he punched out 13 in 5⅔ innings. According to Jaeger Sports, he hit 100 m.p.h. recently. Reports peg him as a fastball/slider power pitcher.
Matt Kent, LHP, Texas A&M
Round: 13
Height: 6-0
Weight: 175
2015 stats: 19 games (14 starts), 9-1, 2.76 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 1.1 BB/9
Briefly: A 22-year-old redshirt junior out of Texas A&M, Kent represents the sort of strike-thrower the Sox could use to round out their staff this summer in Lowell. According to this story, he’s a crafty, pitchability lefthander who tops out around 88 m.p.h.
Bobby Poyner, LHP, University of Florida
Round: 14
Height: 6-0
Weight: 205
2015 stats: 24 games (1 start), 5-2, 2.73 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 0.9 BB/9
Briefly: A senior who has been a consistent strike-thrower both with Florida and in summer leagues. He has been described as a guy with a four-pitch mix (fastball, curve, slider, change) who works mostly in the high 80s and tops out in the low 90s. He was dominant in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore year (1.71 ERA in seven starts) but ended up pitching mostly out of the bullpen in his college career.
Marc Brakeman, RHP, Stanford
Round: 16
Height: 6-1
Weight: 185
2015 stats: 9 starts, 2-4, 2.91 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9
Briefly: Brakeman profiled as a much earlier pick before he missed much of the season with an arm injury, though he pitched well when he returned and has a long track record of success, including a dominant performance in the Cape Cod League; last summer, he had 47 strikeouts and just 7 walks with a 2.18 ERA in 33 innings as a starter and reliever for Hyannis. Baseball America reported that he was up to 93-95 m.p.h. with an excellent swing-and-miss changeup in the Cape League, but that he was at just 87-91 m.p.h. this spring.
Logan Boyd, LHP, Sam Houston State
Round: 19
Height: 6-2
Weight: 200
2015 stats: 15 starts, 6-4, 3.49 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Briefly: This Perfect Game writeup has Boyd as a guy with a three-pitch mix whose fastball is at 89-91 m.p.h.
Dan Zandona, RHP, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
Round: 21
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
2015 stats: 28 games, 1-4, 2.90 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
Briefly: Zandona is the Sox’ second Cal Poly righthander drafted in as many years, following 2014 seventh-rounder Reed Reilly. Whereas Reilly garnered attention for his ground-ball rates, Zandona’s strikeout rate commands notice.
Max Watt, RHP, Lynn (Fla.) University
Round: 22
Height: 6-8
Weight: 250
2015 stats: 15 games (14 starts), 5-2, 3.50 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 4.8 BB/9
Briefly: This is the second time the Sox have drafted the giant righthander, having also selected him in the 37th round of the 2013 draft. While Watt is listed at 6-8 on MLB’s website, his bio on Lynn University’s website pegs him at 6-9. The Red Sox have never had a known pitcher over 6-8, according to Baseball-Reference. Here is a video from 2013 of the big fella warming up:
Bradley Stone, LHP, North Carolina State
Round: 24
Height: 6-3
Weight: 183
2015 stats: 8 games (3 starts), 1-0, 5.28 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 10.6 BB/9
Briefly: Stone was described by Baseball America entering the year as a projectable lefty who works at 87-90 m.p.h. with a four-pitch mix.
Kevin Ginkel, righthanded pitcher, Southwestern (Calif.) College
Round: 26
Height: 6-4
Weight: 205
2015 stats: 21 games, 2-1, 2.67 ERA, 8 saves, 11.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9
Briefly: Ginkel, who was drafted in the 16th round by the Giants last year, reportedly sits at 91-94 mph and can touch 95 with a changeup and breaking ball. His velocity has built from the high-80s as a high-school towards the mid-90s while at junior college. He has a commitment to Nevada for his junior year.
Will Stillman, RHP, Wofford College
Round: 29
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
2015 stats: 28 games, 1-1, 4.60 ERA, 15.3 K/9, 6.4 BB/9
Briefly: Stillman had a dominant sophomore year (1.55 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 45 innings) and was having a solid junior campaign before a rough final few weeks in which he lost his control and wrecked his year-ending numbers. Stillman evidently has a sense of humor, based on his profile on his college team page:
Favorites:
TV Show: Beverly Hillbillies
Movie: Elf
Food: Lunchables
Candy: Candy Necklaces
Historical Figure: Santa
Holiday: Columbus Day
Nick Duron, RHP, Clark (Wash.) Community College
Round: 31
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190 pounds
2015 stats: 11 games (4 starts), 2-1, 3.75 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Briefly: While the MLB Scouting Bureau listed Duron at 190 pounds, he was a football recruit at Western Oregon at tight end and linebacker. He was listed at 215 pounds in football scouting circles. In the absence of available information about his baseball career, here are some of the 19-year-old’s football highlights.
Clate Schmidt, RHP, Clemson
Round: 32
Height: 6-1
Weight: 205
2015 stats: 14 games (6 starts), 2-3, 4.67 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Briefly: Schmidt recently announced that he was diagnosed with treatable lymphoma. News that the Sox had selected the righthander came on the day that he started chemotherapy.
In the past, he’s worked into the mid-90s with his fastball and coming out of high school, he showed the potential for power secondary stuff. Even though his stuff ticked back in college, the Sox still had him on their scouting radar all spring because of what they view as a good arm and a solid breaking ball.
For now, of course, the decisions about his playing career represent a secondary consideration, but he is expected to be able to resume his baseball career, and the Red Sox have recent history to suggest that a pitcher can return from cancer as a force.
Trevor Kelley, RHP, North Carolina
Round: 36
Height: 6-2
Weight: 210
2015 stats: 41 games, 5-3, 2.55 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Briefly: Holy workhorse, Batman. The senior sidearmer led all NCAA pitchers in appearances for much of the season while showing a fastball in the low-90s.
Adam Lau, RHP, Alabama-Birmingham
Round: 37
Height: 6-2
Weight: 210
2015 stats: 22 games, 1-2, 1.71 ERA, 11.9 K/9, 5.1 BB/9
Briefly: While Lau, 20, was announced as a pitcher, he was a two-way college player, hitting .254/.364/.380 with four homers as a junior.
Catchers
Andrew Noviello, C, Bridgewater-Raynham (Mass.) High School
Round: 25
Height: 6-0
Weight: 195
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Briefly: Noviello is the first New Englander selected by the Red Sox in this draft. In this interview with PrepBaseballReport.com, he said that he talked to the coaches at renowned programs such as South Carolina before springing for a scholarship offer at Maine. According to ESPNBoston.com, Noviello worked at up to 92 mph on the mound last season, but the Sox announced the two-way high schooler as a catcher when they selected him.
He is ranked by MaxPreps as the No. 2 overall prospect in Massachusetts. He joins Joseph Freiday as the second Trojans catcher in as many years to take a serious look at the next level. Freiday bypassed the professional ranks, for now, to play for Virginia Tech. He started 13 games during his freshman season.
Baseball America’s report on Noviello: “Noviello is a high ceiling offensive player with the potential for power from the left side. He shows some pitch recognition skills, and his timing has come along as he’s matured. Noviello has above-average arm strength in the infield, but he lacks the closing speed and body control expected of second baseman so he has transitioned to catching this spring. Noviello is raw behind the plate, but some scouts believe he can stay there. Noviello was a bit of a tweener before converting to catching, and could now develop into a solid up-the-middle player. He is far from his ceiling, so he may end up at school.”
Jack Conley, catcher, Leesville Road (N.C.) High School
Round: 30
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Briefly: The catcher has a commitment to North Carolina State.
Infielders
Chad De La Guerra, 2B, Grand Canyon University
Round: 17
Height: 5-11
Weight: 190
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
2015 stats: 52 games, .344 AVG, .401 OBP, .544 SLG, 11 HR, 17 BB, 31 K
Briefly: His listed height might be generous — which would make him very much at home in a Red Sox organization that has plenty of diminutive second basemen with pop. De La Guerra helped lead GCU to the WAC championship in the program’s second year in Division 1. Here’s a profile of the 22-year-old:
James Nelson, SS, Redan (Ga.) High School
Round: 18
Hometown: Stone Mountain, Ga.
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Briefly: Nelson is the nephew of big leaguer Chris Nelson. He has a commitment to Georgia State. He comes from a high school program that has drawn national attention (as in this New York Times profile) for its potential role in diversifying the game.
Yomar Valentin, 2B, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
Round: 20
Age: 17
College commitment: Auburn
Height: 5-8
Weight: 145
Hits: Both
Throws: Right
Briefly: Valentin, the son of longtime big leaguer Jose Valentin, is part of one of Puerto Rico’s most renowned baseball families, as profiled by MLB.com.
He is one of the smallest players you’ll find in the draft, but the switch hitter is considered a sound player and, at just 17 (he doesn’t turn 18 until late December), he certainly has room to gain strength. He has played — and excelled — against older opponents for virtually his entire life, as one can discern in this photo of his Little League World Series team (Valentin is the smallest player on the team, in the front row on the left). He has a scholarship commitment to Auburn.
Baseball America’s report: “The son of former major leaguer Jose Valentin, Yomar Valentin starred for the Puerto Rican team that reached the Little League World Series in 2010. Valentin is listed at 5-foot-7, 155 pounds, but plays above his size and earns praise for his makeup. He is a switch-hitter with quick hands that help him produce more power than his size would suggest. That’s unlikely to be a big part of his game at the next level, however. He has a good feel for the barrel and enough speed to fit at the top of the order. Valentin has good instincts and actions in the infield.”
Steve Mangrum, 3B, Western Albemarle (Va.) High School
Height: 6-0
Weight: 205
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
2015 stats: 24 games, .459 AVG, .583 OBP, .946 SLG, 7 HR, 8 SB (1 CS), 18 BB, 15 K
Briefly: The power-hitting third baseman has a commitment to Virginia Tech.
Cal Smith, second baseman, Fort Worth Christian School
Round: 33
Height: 5-10
Weight: 175
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
2015 stats (MaxPreps.com): 37 games, .346 AVG, .453 OBP, .467 SLG, 0 HR, 25 SB (3 CS)
Smith has a commitment to Panola College.
Nick Lovullo, shortstop, Holy Cross
Round: 34
Height: 5-11
Weight: 180 pounds
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
2015 stats: .278 AVG, .410 OBP, .392 SLG, 3 HR, 7 SB (4 CS), 31 BB, 29 SO
Briefly: Like his father, Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo, Nick Lovullo shows good command of the strike zone with solid walk rates. Lovullo was also drafted by the Blue Jays in 2012, but honored his commitment to Holy Cross.
Outfielders
Nick Hamilton, Lockport (N.Y.) High School
Round: 11
Hometown: Lockport, N.Y.
Age: 17
Height: 6-0
Weight: 170 pounds
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
College commitment: San Jacinto Junior College
Briefly: Hamilton is relatively new to baseball but has the multi-sport athleticism — most evident in his speed — that the Red Sox love to get in the later rounds. Hamilton has a history with Adam Stern, a Red Sox scout who covers Canada and organized a Canadian travel team on which Hamilton played. He’s just 17, with the opportunity to learn a great deal.
Baseball America’s report: “Hamilton is one of the more intriguing athletes in this year’s class. He is new to baseball, picking up the game as a sophomore. Hamilton is from way upstate New York, and just hasn’t played much baseball. His best tool is his speed, which is a legitimate 80 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. He can run the 60-yard dash in less than 6.4 seconds, and his speed translates into game action. At the plate, he is a switch-hitter with surprising contact ability, though he is raw from both sides. Hamilton has room to fill in both his thighs and shoulders, and could develop power to the gaps as he adds strength.”
Jerry Downs, St. Thomas (Fla.) University
Round: 15
Height: 6-2
Weight: 215
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
2015 stats: .349 AVG, .493 OBP, .556 SLG, 9 HR, 28 XBH, 44 BB, 39 K
Briefly: Downs appeared to be at the heart of St. Thomas’s run to the brink of an NAIA championship (they lost the championship game), though information on him is far less available than it is for teammate Ben Ancheff, a 300-pound righthanded pitcher whose startling size resulted in considerable coverage.
Kyri Washington, Longwood (Va.) University
Round: 23
Height: 6-1
Weight: 215
2015 stats: .279 AVG, .357 OBP, .548 SLG, 15 HR
Briefly: Washington has what is described here as windshield-shattering power in batting practice, and put on a show at a Cape Cod League workout at Fenway last summer, but he remains raw.
Still, for where he was taken, the idea of Washington as a lottery ticket with power and athleticism carries obvious appeal.
Saige Jenco, Virginia Tech
Round: 27
Height: 5-10
Weight: 180
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
2015 stats: 48 games, .330 AVG, .394 OBP, .466 SLG, 3 HR, 10 SB (1 CS), 22 BB, 34 K
Briefly: The redshirt sophomore was a third-team all-ACC player, with his speed playing both at the top of the order and in the outfield. He’s slated to play in the Cape League this summer. His on-base percentage took a considerable hit from his freshman year (dropping from .449), but he started to show an improved ability to drive the ball.
Baseball America’s report: “Washington’s tools are loud, but his floor is low, which prevents him from climbing significantly higher on this list. The Virginia native is built like a fullback, with wide shoulders and chiseled and sculpted body. The righthanded hitter has plus power, which comes from a back-elbow-heavy swing that can sometimes cause him to lose balance and can push his bat out of the hitting zone early. This, coupled with Washington’s raw approach and poor strike zone awareness, leads to severe swing-and-miss issues. He struck out in 28 percent of plate appearances this season. Still, Washington has improved from year-to-year, and he receives good marks for his makeup, giving him a chance to make adjustments and develop further at the plate. Washington has an average arm and is an average runner, though he has played mostly left field and profiles best there defensively. The team that takes Washington will likely be optimistic about his upside as a hitter, while those who are off on him do not believe his hit tool will develop enough for his power to play.”
Tyler Spoon, Arkansas
Round: 35
Height: 5-11
Weight: 190
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
2015 stats: 62 games, .331 AVG, .370 OBP, .500 SLG, 6 HR, 9 SB (2 CS)
Briefly: The teammate of Red Sox first-rounder Andrew Benintendi had a strong 2015 campaign of his own. Whereas Benintendi did so as a sophomore-eligible draftee, Spoon is a redshirt junior. He’s taken part in the sort of play that you’ve probably never seen before.
C.J. Ballard, Pike County (Ga.) High School
Round: 38
Bats: Left
Throws: Right
Briefly: Ballard has a commitment to play at Georgia Southern. He’s at least the second player drafted by the Red Sox out of Pike County. Righthander Hunter Strickland was taken and signed out of Pike County by the Sox in 2007, eventually matriculating to the big leagues with the Giants for their World Series run last year.
Daniel Reyes, Mater Academy Charter School (Fla.)
Round: 39
Height: 6-1
Weight: 200
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Briefly: Reyes is a power-hitting outfielder with what is described as a questionable approach. Given his high ceiling and relatively raw skill set, going to a major college program to develop his skills for a few seasons seems like a natural course. Here’s Baseball America’s writeup:
“Reyes stands out for his powerful bat, which last year helped the Lions win their first state championship in any sport and again propelled them to the state semifinals this spring. He has significant raw power and was chosen to participate in the Junior Select Home Run Derby last summer at the All-Star Game. How consistently he’s able to get to that pop when facing elite pitching remains an open question, however. His pitch recognition skills still need development and, as a result, he’s had trouble making contact at times. Reyes is a fringe-average runner and is probably best suited for left field. Righthanded power is hard to find and Reyes certainly has it, but if a team signs him away from his Florida commitment, they will have to work with him to develop his pitch recognition skills.”
D.J. Artis, Southeast Guilford (N.C.) High School
Round: 40.
Height: 5-9
Weight: 165
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Briefly: Artis has a commitment to Liberty University. Here’s how Liberty described his skill set in announcing its recruiting class.
“The outfielder ranks as the 277th overall prospect nationally and was the 11th top prospect in the state of North Carolina. The speedy Artis batted .446 for Southeast Guilford with an [OBP] of .512, last season. He also had six doubles and stole 24 bases, earning all-conference and all-region honors.
The talented Artis also enjoyed a successful summer as he was selected to play in the Powerade State Games and also was a top performer for the Evoshield Canes. The outfielder had an outstanding showing at the WWBA 17U tournament, hitting .533 with 11 runs and four stolen bases.”
How do slot values and bonus pools affect MLB draft picks?
With a few exceptions (sometimes prominent ones), the picks taken in the first two days and 10 rounds of the draft will sign with the teams that draft them — in part because the clubs cross their T’s regarding signability due to the use-it-or-lose-it nature of their available draft bonus pools.
A primer: MLB has a recommended slot value for every pick in the first 10 rounds. How teams spend against that recommended pool through their first 10 rounds dictates whether they will incur penalties for exceeding the recommendations, beginning with a tax and going all the way up to the loss of future first-round picks for exceeding the recommended bonus pool by more than 5 percent.
The Red Sox, for instance, have just more than $6.2 million available in their draft bonus pool, with about $3.6 million allocated for the No. 7 overall pick in the draft and descending values all the way down to their 10th-round selection, with a recommended slot of $152,700.
If the Sox signed their 10th rounder for, say, $1 million, that money would count against the $6.2 million total bonus pool. They’d have $847,300 less to spend on the rest of their draft.
But a team’s pool becomes more constrained if it fails to sign a pick. If the team doesn’t sign its 10th-rounder, it simply loses the $152,700 as part of its pool. There is no possibility of reallocation. It’s lost draft money.
That creates an immense incentive for teams to sign each of their picks from the first 10 rounds. Beyond that, however, there’s no consequence for failing to sign a player.
As such, this is a place where teams with some money to play with after their selections from the first 10 rounds can take some shots on players whom they’re not certain to sign. Any overage beyond $100,000 for players drafted in Rounds 11-40 counts against the draft bonus pool in rounds 1-10. That gives teams a shot to try to convince talented young players to sign, as the Sox did three years ago when they drafted talented high schoolers Alex Bregman and Carson Fulmer on Day 3.
The Sox made significant offers to both, but the duo elected to pursue their college careers and landed in the top eight picks in this year’s draft. Still, it was a shot worth taking in the eyes of the team.
Rachel G. Bowers and Richard Morin contributed to this report. Follow Alex Speier on Twitter @alexspeier.