The preference of Red Sox owners would be for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to find an ace via the trade route — an under-30 ace, to satisfy the preferred criteria of the organization.
That would require giving up top prospects or a young player at the major league level. Not the easiest transaction to pull off.
Otherwise, Dombrowski will have to consider the pool of free agents to find someone who could be an ace, something he has said is important to a winning franchise and something he had in Detroit in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
Zack Greinke, who was 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA last season, seems to be emerging as the top starter on the market after he opted out of his Dodgers contract with three years and $71 million remaining. Greinke is also the oldest of the top-tier field at age 32.
There’s a growing sentiment among scouts that Greinke is the one pitcher out there who could sustain a high level of performance into his late 30s because he’s not a max-effort pitcher. He can certainly throw hard, but much of his repertoire is in the Greg Maddux mode, where he can outthink the hitter, and he offers the best pitching acumen on the market.
Early in his career, Greinke had anxiety issues in Kansas City, where current Red Sox vice president of scouting Allard Baird was general manager and dealt directly with those. But Greinke seems to have outgrown them, and may have been the best pitcher in the game in 2015 with the high-profile Dodgers. He had the highest WAR among pitchers (9.3) and the lowest WHIP (0.84).
The Dodgers are expected to sweeten the pot to retain Greinke. Would the Red Sox offer a five-year deal at $150 million? And would Greinke even consider Boston? His comfort level is high in Los Angeles. He’s used to the city, the fans, the media, and he loves being with Clayton Kershaw. So the Dodgers, unless they have other plans, appear to be the front-runners to retain him.
That brings us to David Price, who was 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA pitching for the Tigers and Blue Jays.
The 30-year-old lefthander, whose 6.0 WAR ranked sixth among pitchers, loved Toronto after Dombrowski traded him there from Detroit at the deadline. But will new Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro get the money from Rogers Corp. to keep Price at what is likely to be a seven-year deal north of $210 million?
Will the Red Sox enter this pricey tug-of-war for a pitcher who is 2-7 with a 5.12 ERA lifetime in the postseason? Price is right on the cusp of Boston’s line of demarcation for pitchers.
Price has indicated that he has reservations about Boston because he receives the nastiest Twitter messages from Red Sox fans, and he has a negative history with David Ortiz from his days in Tampa Bay.
Price would seem to have better options in the Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers, Astros, Nationals, Padres, Blue Jays, Angels, and maybe even Tigers.
Johnny Cueto, you say?
The Red Sox may not go crazy on this one. They heard enough about Cueto’s possible elbow ailments around the trade deadline to back off. While he dispelled those concerns somewhat with his velocity in the postseason, he was up and down in his performance all season, so there might be enough doubt not to devote big money and multiple years to him.
Cueto, 29, was 11-13 with a 3.44 ERA between Cincinnati and Kansas City, including 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts for the Royals. He had a 5.40 ERA in 25 postseason innings, though he did pitch two very good games for the World Series champions. The Royals do not seem to be a player for Cueto.
Jordan Zimmermann could be Boston’s man.
Zimmermann, 29, is a favorite of scouts because of his bulldog mentality. He had an uneven year (13-10, 3.66 ERA in 33 starts/201⅔ innings) and was actually better in the first half (8-5, 3.22, in 18 starts) than the second (5-5, 4.20, in 15 starts). Lefties hit .284 against him, and he was a homebody, with an 8-4 record and a 2.84 ERA at Nationals Park.
Zimmermann, however, is likely to be less expensive than Greinke, Price, and maybe even Cueto, and his toughness is something the Red Sox pitching staff needs.
There are surely a number of second-tier choices in Scott Kazmir, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister, Yovani Gallardo, Wei-Yin Chen, John Lackey, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy, Hisashi Iwakuma, Mike Leake, and others.
At next week’s general managers meetings in Boca Raton, Fla., we may begin to see some clarity concerning who among the young elite pitchers might get traded to accommodate other needs a team may have.
The Indians would make Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar available, but likely not Corey Kluber. The Red Sox had a chance to deal for Carrasco at the deadline, but he seems to be more of what they already have.
Trades that would create impact would be Matt Harvey (who Mets people tell me will not be traded), Sonny Gray (who the A’s insist will not be traded), and Chris Sale (who the White Sox say will not be traded). The Mets may have to trade one of their other starters (Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler) to obtain offense if they’re losing Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy in free agency.
The Red Sox made inquiries on Gray at the trading deadline but were told by the A’s he was off-limits. We’ll see if that remains the case, especially if a team comes at the A’s with a major package of prospects and/or major leaguers.
There’s often a caveat with A’s pitchers — “beware of their numbers because of the large ballpark they pitch in” — but Gray defies that. He had a better record on the road (8-3, 2.63) than at home (6-4, 2.82).
The White Sox are holding firm on Sale, but everyone has a price.
Sale, 26, led the league with 274 strikeouts in 208⅔ innings and 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He can be dominating. The White Sox have a team-friendly contract on him through 2019, with options in 2018 and 2019 at $12.5 million and $13.5 million.
So there are plenty of names to mull, but the Red Sox have to make sure they’re getting an actual ace, not someone they think will be one.
Their decision not to go the extra mile on Jon Lester and pursue Rick Porcello in a trade didn’t work out.
This time, they have to make sure they pick the right guy.
Nick Cafardo can be reached at cafardo@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @nickcafardo.