When: Thursday, 8:20 p.m.
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
TV, radio: Fox, NFL Network, WBZ-FM 98.5
When the Colts run
The ground game has been a struggle for Indianapolis, which hasn’t had enough healthy horses to gain any footing. Marlon Mack was penciled in as the starter but he has been hampered by a hamstring injury. A pair of rookies — Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines — likely will lug the mail for this one. Wilkins (6 feet 1 inch, 216 pounds) looks like a power back but runs more like a finesse guy. Wilkins has good initial quickness and footwork. He can make defenders miss on the inside and in the open field because of his nifty elusiveness but he lacks the physicality to run guys over or make a lot of yards after initial contact. Hines has the quickness and agility to turn the corner and show off his best quality: track star speed. Hines shows adequate toughness, but at 5-9, 198, he lacks the bulk and durability to be a bell cow. The Colts have struggled to get a lot of push from their offensive line; space has been hard to come by. This group has had trouble shedding initial blocks. Center Ryan Kelly is an excellent tactician who plays with excellent leverage. He can get outmuscled, however. Left guard Quenton Nelson is big, strong, and athletic. Just a rookie, he will soon be the gold standard at his position. Right guard Matt Slauson, 32, is a wily old veteran. He lacks quickness but will fight till the whistle. Look for New England’s front to build off Sunday’s performance with another strong showing.
EDGE: Patriots
Rushing yards per game
Indianapolis offense: 72.0 (29th)
New England defense: 121.5 (27th)
When the Colts pass
This has been become Indianapolis’s preferred mode of transportation in Frank Reich’s West Coast scheme. He has the perfect guy at the helm, as Andrew Luck is among the smartest and most accurate passers in the league. Luck is a commanding and unflappable leader. He has excellent presnap recognition, makes excellent check-downs, scans the entire field quickly, and delivers pinpoint passes. Because his shoulder is held together with pins, duct tape, and super glue, his velocity hasn’t yet returned to what it was in 2016. When the Colts need a Hail Mary, Reich will summon the strong-armed Jacoby Brissett. Tackles Anthony Castonzo (he’s back, baby) and Le’Raven Clark will need blocking help. With a full and healthy complement of weapons, Luck can move the ball against any defense. That doesn’t appear to be the case this week. Top receiver T.Y. Hilton (chest/hamstring) and tight end Jack Doyle (hip) are hurting. Ryan Grant, Nyheim Hines, and Eric Ebron likely will be the most heavily targeted pass catchers. Grant has excellent size and hands and thrives underneath as a possession guy. Hines is a sudden shifter with good hands and excellent vision and instincts in the open field. Ebron has great size (6-4, 253) and runs solid routes to gain separation. His hands are solid. Chester Rogers (he’s slippery), Zach Pascal (he’s sizable), and Marcus Johnson (he’s smooth) round out the receiving corps.
EDGE: Patriots
Passing yards per game
Indianapolis offense: 265.0 (15th)
New England defense: 226.3 (eighth)
When the Patriots run
The Patriots threw a block party against the Dolphins and opened myriad holes and opportunities for Sony Michel and James White, who took advantage. Everybody got in on the act, from the big uglies up front (guards Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney were monsters) to the rugged tight ends (maybe Dwayne Allen’s best game as a Patriot) to the receivers downfield (Cordarrelle Patterson was relentless). They’ll try to Xerox that effort against an active and energetic Indianapolis front seven. Michel showed burst and instincts, following his pals along all (or mostly) the right routes. White’s shiftiness makes it tough for opponents to land clean shots. Colts tackle Al Woods (6 feet 4 inches, 330 pounds) is a massive cinder block in the middle. He’s not a mover but he’s a shaker, and if Woods gets his meaty mitts on the runner, he’s going nowhere. Tackle Denico Autry is tough and plays with great leverage. On the edges, Jabaal Sheard is strong but streaky and Margus Hunt is about as athletic as a 6-8, 298-pounder can be. He’s a little raw when it comes to tackling technique but he can bat down passes like nobody’s business. Weak-side linebacker Darius Leonard (ankle) isn’t at full strength. He is an instinctive, aggressive tackling machine. Najee Goode is athletic and strong. He can track backs out of the backfield and in pass routes. Anthony Walker is a quick-reading downhill thumper.
EDGE: Patriots
Rushing yards per game
New England offense: 117.0 (12th)
Indianapolis defense: 109.2 (T-15th)
When the Patriots pass
Just when it looked like Tom Brady might have all his weapons on the field at the same time, Rob Gronkowski’s nagging ankle injury likely will keep him out of this one. Julian Edelman is back, however, and that helps everybody out. First and foremost, it helps Brady. The ridiculously quick Edelman has long been one of the quarterback’s favorites. Edelman works underneath like a master. He gets clean breaks, goes into his routes quickly, and catches darn near everything thrown to him. Conditioning and timing will be key, as he’s coming off a four-week suspension coming off a camp where he wasn’t happy with his progress, coming off a lost season because of an ACL injury. That being said, he has tremendous chemistry with Brady and his presence alone will provide a lift — and opportunities — for Josh Gordon, Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan, and Cordarrelle Patterson. Athletic tight Jacob Hollister could help fill the Gronk void while Dwayne Allen will continue in his blocking role. It might not matter who is running the routes, because the Indianapolis secondary is in shambles. Cornerbacks Kenny Moore (a Patriots training camp stud of 2017) and Quincy Wilson have concussions. Fellow corner Nate Hairston’s left ankle is in a boot. Additionally, safeties Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (knee) are ailing. Their range will be limited against all these weapons.
EDGE: Patriots
Passing yards per game
New England offense: 220.3 (22d)
Indianapolis defense: 268.0 (19th)
Colts’ key player: RB Nyheim Hines
A scatback/slot receiver hybrid, the 5-foot-9-inch, 198-pound Hines is a fluid and fearless runner despite his comparative lack of size. He gives good effort on the inside, but get him in space and he’ll really flash.
How he beats you: With lateral quickness and blinding speed. Hines can pinball his way through traffic, but if gets a clear lane after a handoff or a catch, he’ll be off to the races.
How to slow him down: By wearing him down with lots and lots of hits. Hines can carry the rock but he can’t carry a team for long stretches if he’s continually absorbing big body blows.
Colts’ keys to victory
1. Play day: Forget about the built-in excuses of injuries and a short week. It’s game time, and the starters and substitutes have to step up and go the distance.
2. Hackamore: The defensive backs (and this is a banged-up group) have to chuck New England’s receivers at the snap to prevent them from running free.
3. Ground training: Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines have to be quick to the holes to grind out yards and grind down the clock. Shortening this game will be huge.
Patriots’ keys to victory
1. Slot machine: Julian Edelman is champing at the bit after an extra-long layoff. Get him the ball early and put that nervous energy to work right away.
2. Bad luck: Keep the pass rush momentum going by getting after Andrew Luck. He’s more mobile than you think, but he’s probably a little less of a gambler after his recent injury history.
3. Hot game: Sony Michel needs to keep the momentum going after a breakout performance. If he can get past the first line of defense, there should be plenty of room to roam.
PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Colts 10
Jim McBride can be reached at james.mcbride@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @globejimmcbride.