David Ortiz is on pace to hit 43 home runs with a team-record 68 doubles and 141 RBIs. The odds are against him maintaining that torrid pace, but Ortiz could well have the most productive season ever for a player over the age of 40.
No player in his age-40 season or beyond has ever hit more than 34 homers. Just two — Dave Winfield and Harold Baines — have driven in 100 runs and only eight players that age have had an OPS over .900.
Every time Ortiz wins a game in the late innings, teammates shake their heads and wonder how he can retire. Fans express the same sentiments on social media.
If Ortiz announced tomorrow that he wanted to play in 2017 and would sign right now for $20 million, how could the Red Sox refuse him?
Just don’t expect it.
Ortiz still has the bat speed and his knowledge of opposing pitchers is encyclopedic at this point. The problem is preparing for the season and maintaining his body for six months.
Here’s a little window into that. Ortiz hosts a charity golf tournament in the Dominican Republic in early December every year. It’s an event that demands a lot of his attention.
Last winter, while covering the event, I crossed paths with Ortiz early one morning and he was coming back from a workout drenched with sweat. This was the first week of December, a solid two and a half months before he had to report to spring training.
That’s where the bat speed comes from. Ortiz also goes through a lot of daily maintenance to keep his legs in shape. Both of his Achilles tendons have been troublesome for several years now.
The other factor is that Ortiz wants to go out as a productive player, not a guy with a .617 OPS like Derek Jeter. It would not sit well with Ortiz to have to sit against lefthanders or bat lower in the order.
So enjoy this while you can. It’s always better to go a year too soon than a year too late.
Video: David Ortiz’s walk-off double on Saturday
A few other Red Sox thoughts and observations:
■ Of course Clay Buchholz is aggravating you, how could he not be? But it would be a mistake to trade him.
A contending team cannot shed pitching depth, not with 124 games left. The Red Sox need to exhaust every avenue to get production from Buchholz because they have no idea what they’ll get out of Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, or the guys in Triple A.
Buchholz’s recent history is to pitch poorly early in the season then rebound. He’s 31 and apparently healthy. Eight starts are not enough to give up on him.
If he continues to pitch poorly, the Sox could skip a start or invent a reason to DL him. But they’re in no position to give away a starter.
■ Walks are a major problem in Pawtucket. Henry Owens has walked 17 in 30 innings. Brian Johnson has 22 in 30 innings, and Roenis Elias has 19 in 25 innings. Pitchers unable or unwilling to throw strikes in Triple A aren’t going to succeed in the majors.
■ Rodriguez’s 30-day rehab assignment runs out on May 27. He could make two more starts. If the lefty isn’t pitching well by then, the Red Sox could simply activate him off the DL and option him to Pawtucket.
Rodriguez has struck out only 10 batters in 21 innings with Pawtucket over four starts. Averaging 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A isn’t a good sign.
■ Something to think about for next season: Hanley Ramirez is a career .344/.389/.638 hitter in 29 career games as a designated hitter. He has 19 extra-base hits and 27 RBIs in those games.
Ramirez is 9 of 18 with six RBIs and five extra-base hits in four games as a DH this season. He’s the guy who should replace Ortiz.
■ The person with the @FireFarrell handle has mysteriously disappeared off Twitter. Funny thing how you know more about a manager and his team after 40 games than you do after 15.
To his credit, Farrell has adjusted. There is less lineup tinkering than the last two seasons. The decision to bench Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo also created the necessary sense of urgency early in the season.
Sticking with Chris Young also made a lot of sense. Young has started to hit lefties, which is why he was signed. Brock Holt has hit .228 since April 9 and Young is a needed complement in left field.
■ Dwight Evans was at Fenway Park last week. He loves Travis Shaw.
“His swing is made for Fenway and he understands the game,” Evans said. “I help mentor the young guys and when Travis was in Double A, you could see it then. I’m not surprised to see what he’s doing.”
■ It’s reasonable to think that before the season ends, Ortiz will be among the top 25 all-time in home runs, doubles, extra-base hits, and RBIs. That’s rare air. Throw in his postseason accomplishments and it’s now hard to imagine him not making the Hall of Fame on the first or second ballot.
Remember, Ortiz will not be on the ballot until 2021. That will be a dozen years since the 2009 report that Ortiz may have flunked a drug test in 2003. It remains unclear to this day whether Ortiz actually flunked a test or what the substance was. As was pointed out at the time, the survey test included what were legal products at the time.
The voting membership of the BBWAA also will have changed more by then. Studies of those ballots made public have shown that younger voters are more tolerant of alleged PED users than older voters who see themselves as moral guardians of the Hall.
It’s also likely that other players suspected of PED use will have made the Hall by then. Voting in Jeff Bagwell and Pudge Rodriguez and keeping out Ortiz would be hard to justify.
Come 2021, whether Ortiz flunked a drug test or not in 2003 is not going to close the door to Cooperstown.
■ Josh Rutledge is proving to be a very helpful player. He has hit .317 in 55 games for the Sox since being obtained from the Angels for Shane Victorino. The Sox are 5-1 in the games he has started this season with Rutledge going 8 for 22.
■ Castillo has not hit a home run in 99 at-bats since he was demoted to Triple A. They threw away $72.5 million.
■ Something is fishy with Carson Smith. He was activated off the disabled list on May 3 and so far has appeared in only three games, facing 11 batters and throwing 48 pitches.
Farrell denied there is any physical issue, as did Smith. But the Sox are clearly being extraordinarily careful with the 26-year-old righthander. Smith strained a flexor muscle in spring training and that injury is often a precursor to a more serious elbow problem. It’s something to keep an eye on.
■ Triple A Pawtucket will drop from 144 games to 142 games next season then to 140 games in 2018. The International League is cutting down on the schedule at the behest of Major League Baseball. Farm directors feel the players are getting overworked.
Double A teams will have their schedules cut, too.
■ Did you hear Roger Clemens on NESN on Thursday? He expertly broke down David Price’s mechanics. An outlet in this market would be wise to have him on semi-regularly.
Peter Abraham can be reached at peter.abraham@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter @peteabe.