For much of September, the Red Sox have looked like an Olympic speedskater in a qualifying heat, pacing themselves toward the finish line while holding something in reserve for the more important competition that remains.
Their playoff position as the second wild-card seed — destined to go on the road to play the top wild-card seed, likely the Yankees — was all but locked in entering the month. The Sox have focused largely on forging the best version of their roster for the playoffs and ensuring the health of as many players as possible rather than short-term gain.
With that, on-field performance has been unspectacular. Despite a four-game sweep in Baltimore, the Sox have appeared sluggish at times in forging a 4-5 home record against three sub-.500 teams (the Mariners, Angels, and Royals) who were circling the drain.
Does it matter? Does the way a team finishes the regular season have implications for the postseason?
World Series winners have typically excelled on October’s doorstep, with the 121 champions posting a collective .629 winning percentage from Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season. (Any regular-season October games are treated as “September” games in this context.) Only 10 World Series winners had sub-.500 records in September, most recently the 2015 Royals.
However, that excellence largely mirrored what they’d done throughout the year, with World Series winners possessing a combined .619 winning percentage over their full championship seasons.
Under the current playoff format featuring a 12-team playoff field with a best-of-three Wild Card Series that was introduced in 2022, the four World Series winners had a collective .577 winning percentage in September — a step down from the quartet’s .597 during the regular season.
However, that number is dragged down by the 2023 Rangers, the only team of that foursome whose winning percentage in September was worse than the rest of the season.
What about the broader playoff field? Teams reaching the playoffs in the expanded format had a .572 winning percentage in the regular season, and a .585 in September. On the whole, their September performance was roughly in line with the rest of their season.
Still, there are individual cases of teams dominating or stumbling to the regular season’s finish line. Those teams largely offer a reminder that the playoffs represent a reset for the season, and that there’s little to suggest that a team needs to be peaking in September in order to excel in October.
Take the two most extreme examples. Last year, the Guardians went on an epic 20-7 run (.741) down the stretch to win the American League Central when the Tigers collapsed (7-17, .292) and backed into the playoffs as the lowest wild-card seed.
Those two teams then met in a Wild Card Series in Cleveland. The Tigers won, then pushed the Mariners to the limit of a best-of-five Division Series.
They’re not alone. Of the five playoff qualifiers under the current format that had sub-.500 September records, four won their first playoff series (three in the Wild Card Series, one in the Division Series).
That’s not to say that it’s “bad” to play well entering the playoffs. Of the five teams that had the best September records under the current playoff format, only those 2025 Guardians lost their first postseason series.
There’s simply not a clear correlation between September performance and what a team eventually does in the playoffs. Rosters, and roster management, change significantly, in ways that truly do turn the playoffs into a different test.
So, do the Red Sox need to care about how they play in September so long as they get into the playoffs?
“Yes and no,” said Red Sox outfielder Jahmai Jones, who was part of those 2025 Tigers. “Obviously, winning’s better than losing. You want to win as many games as you possibly can, especially heading into September or into October. But at the end of the day, [the 2025 Tigers] were a great example last year of it, where we didn’t have our best month [in September], and then we come out and we’re one at-bat away from advancing to the [ALCS].
“Obviously, everybody wants to win every single game that we go out there [for], so that’s what we’re focused on right now. If you start to get rolling at the right time, I think you can roll that momentum into the playoffs. But at the same time, we’re all trying to get to the dance, and it doesn’t matter how you get there. You’ve just got to get there, and then once you’re there, you can start playing your game.”
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him @alexspeier.