Two teams still alive in the NFL playoffs expected to be here. The Chiefs are playing in their sixth straight AFC Championship game, and the 49ers are in their fourth NFC Championship game in five years.
For the other two teams, Sunday’s games are an opportunity of a lifetime.
For Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, it’s their first time hosting a conference championship game in the franchise’s 28-year history. It’s Jackson’s best opportunity to change his career narrative and lead his team to a Super Bowl.
For the Lions, it’s their second NFC Championship game in the game’s 54 years, and first since the 1991 season. A devoted fan base that has never experienced a Super Bowl is ready to explode if its team wins at San Francisco.
“We always felt like, my wife and I when we first moved up here, that this whole city was just waiting for a moment like this and a season like this,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “I don’t know what it’ll be like here this weekend because I know a lot of people want to go to this game, but the support’s been overwhelming.”
Let’s take a look at some of the top story lines of Sunday’s conference championship games:
▪ Jackson was dominant in last Saturday’s playoff win over the Texans, becoming the first player with 100 rushing yards, two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and a passer rating of at least 100 in any game — regular season or playoffs. But Sunday’s matchup against the Chiefs is a far greater test for whether Jackson can be a championship-caliber quarterback.
Jackson was 1-3 in the playoffs before last week’s win, and doesn’t feel he has proven anything yet.
“To be honest, it doesn’t mean anything right now,” he said. “So, it really doesn’t change anything until we complete the mission.”
▪ This year marks the second straight that all four championship-game quarterbacks are under the age of 30. Mahomes-Jackson will be the fifth conference championship game pitting former MVPs, but the first to feature two under 30.
▪ Mahomes is 3-1 against Jackson, but the last meeting was in Week 2 of 2021, making their past history less relevant. More relevant: Jackson is 7-2 at home this season, averaging 35 points per game, losing the two games by a combined 5 points, and winning by an average margin of 23.3.
▪ Jackson and Mahomes get the headlines, but this game could be about defense. The Ravens and Chiefs finished 1-2 in points allowed this season, making Sunday’s game the first such battle since the 2004 AFC Championship game between the Patriots and Steelers. Baltimore (60) and Kansas City (57) also ranked 1-2 in sacks.
▪ This will be the fourth AFC Championship game for Ravens coach John Harbaugh, but there isn’t much game experience on the roster, outside of Odell Beckham, Nelson Agholor, Kyle Van Noy, and Justin Tucker. This is also Harbaugh’s first conference championship game since the 2012 season, making him the second coach (Dick Vermeil) to have a gap of at least 10 years.
▪ Mahomes is only 28 and in his seventh season, and already compares with some all-time greats. He has tied Brett Favre with 13 postseason wins, and will tie John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Terry Bradshaw for third (14) with a win Sunday. Mahomes is two touchdown passes from tying Manning for fifth in playoff history (40). And he’s at six straight conference championships, two behind Tom Brady for the most consecutive.
▪ Chiefs-Ravens will be the first AFC Championship game not played in Kansas City since the Patriots beat the Jaguars in January 2018. It’s the first one not played in Kansas City, Foxborough, or Denver since the Steelers beat the Jets in January 2011.
▪ The biggest news to monitor will be whether 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can play, and how effective the Ravens’ Mark Andrews can be in his first game back from a broken leg. But the real injury impact may come at interior offensive line. Joe Thuney, the Chiefs’ All-Pro left guard, won’t play after suffering a pectoral strain last weekend. The Lions will be thin with left guard Jonah Jackson out with a knee injury and center Frank Ragnow hobbled by four injuries. 49ers Pro Bowl defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and Ravens All-Pro defensive tackle Justin Madubuike could feast.
▪ The Lions’ last playoff win on the road came in 1957, coincidentally in San Francisco’s Kezar Stadium. Jared Goff, previously with the Rams, is looking to become the fifth quarterback to lead two franchises to the Super Bowl, joining Brady, Manning, Kurt Warner, and Craig Morton.
▪ The Lions have played just 11 of 36 games outdoors the last two seasons, with a 7-4 record (3-2 this season). They won in some tough spots this season — Kansas City, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay — but those were early. The Lions got crushed at Baltimore in Week 7, and were manhandled at Chicago in Week 14. Sunday’s weather in Santa Clara, Calif., is expected to be mild and nice, at least.
▪ Lions coach Dan Campbell said he texted mentor Bill Parcells after last Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers, and got a brief response relating to the game at San Francisco.
“Said, ‘Congratulations. Shoes.’ ” Campbell said. “Did you watch the game the other night, San Francisco-Green Bay? All the slips, the falls, the everything. And that’s Coach Parcells. Classic. And he’s right. He’ll always give you some substance.”
▪ This will be Goff’s first matchup against the 49ers as a member of the Lions, but he was 3-6 against them as the Rams’ quarterback, with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Goff lost his last five against the 49ers and hasn’t beaten them since Week 17 of 2018. But he is playing well, with no interceptions in six of his last eight games.
“He’s as accurate as any quarterback I’ve seen,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “If you sit and make things easy for him, he will gash you. You better be on your stuff or he can embarrass you fast.”
▪ A good-on-good battle: The 49ers’ running game against the Lions’ run defense. The 49ers ranked No. 3 in rushing yards (140.5 per game) and No. 4 in yards per carry (4.8), while the Lions’ defense was No. 2 in rushing yards allowed (88.8) and No. 3 in yards per carry (3.7). Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459) with seven 100-yard games, while the Lions only allowed one player to top 70 yards (Justin Fields with 104).
▪ All four remaining teams feature a dominant tight end. The 49ers’ George Kittle led all tight ends this season with 1,020 yards. The Chiefs’ Travis Kelce was second with 984, and he is just six catches from tying Jerry Rice for the record for postseason receptions (151). Lions rookie Sam LaPorta finished fifth among tight ends with 889, and first with 10 touchdowns. The Ravens’ Andrews was on his way to his fourth Pro Bowl nod with 544 yards and six touchdowns before he broke his leg in his 10th game.
▪ Ex-Patriots playing this weekend (or at least on the roster): Van Noy, Agholor, and Malik Cunningham on the Ravens; Thuney on the Chiefs; Anthony Firkser and Dan Skipper on the Lions; and Logan Ryan on the 49ers.
CHANGES COMING?
Bills could look different next season
The Bills’ loss to the Chiefs in the playoffs last weekend didn’t just end their season. It may have ended the current iteration of the team, which won four straight AFC East titles but has had little postseason success.
The Bills enter the offseason nearly $54 million over next year’s projected salary cap, third most in the NFL. They have to be compliant by March 13.
“We don’t have the same money we had going into 2019, 2020, but we will work around it,” general manager Brandon Beane said. “We’re not planning to take a year off and just not be competitive.”
One easy move is converting most of Josh Allen’s $29.5 million guaranteed salary into a signing bonus, which could create as much as $23 million in cap space. But there will probably be some notable releases.
Von Miller, who made almost no impact this season as he returned from a torn ACL, has $10.71 million in fully guaranteed salary, but the Bills may cut him to save nearly $7 million in cap space as a post-June 1 release. Tight end Dawson Knox may be in trouble after he was passed by Dalton Kincaid on the depth chart, but he could be saved by his contract, which calls for $8.58 million in guaranteed salary next season.
Safety Jordan Poyer is a potential cut with $0 guaranteed money. Center Mitch Morse, and cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Rasul Douglas could all be cap casualties. Receiver Gabe Davis and safety Micah Hyde are free agents.
Then there’s Stefon Diggs, who didn’t score a touchdown in his last seven games, or reach 100 yards in his last 13. That’s not a lot of production for a player set to make $18.5 million next season, with a cap number of $27.9 million.
Beane expressed faith in Diggs, saying this past week, “He’s a No. 1 receiver. I firmly believe that, not wavering off of that.” But it just sounds as though Beane is trying to build up Diggs as a trade prospect.
Diggs’s salary has no guarantees until the fifth day of the 2024 league year, when it becomes fully guaranteed. A trade would saddle the Bills with a $31 million dead cap charge, but they’d save a large chunk of cash. And I wouldn’t be surprised if they released Diggs before his contract guarantees. They can designate him as a post-June 1 release and create $19 million in cap space.
One change that doesn’t appear to be coming is at head coach, even though Sean McDermott’s team once again came up short in the playoffs, in part because of the coach’s questionable decisions.
“You’re never going to bat 1.000 on those,” Beane said. “But you know, we’re not sitting here in this building going, ‘Man, I don’t think Sean McDermott can do the job.’ ”
ETC.
Will field hold up for Super Bowl?
One of the biggest story lines of this year’s Super Bowl won’t revolve around the teams on the field, but on the field itself. All eyes will be on the grass surface at Las Vegas’s Allegiant Stadium to see if the league learned any lessons from last year’s debacle in Arizona, in which the grass was so slick, players were consistently slipping and comparing it to an ice rink.
The stadiums in Phoenix and Las Vegas are the only two in which a natural grass surface is kept on a tray that can be rolled into the sunlight during the day and into the domed stadium for events. Last year, the NFL’s former longtime turf expert criticized the league for using too much water, too much sand, and not enough sunlight on the grass.
The NFL on Thursday said it has installed a new natural grass surface at Allegiant Stadium and is confident that it will play well for the Super Bowl.
“This surface has been nurtured from the sod farm all the way to the Super Bowl,” NFL executive vice president Jeff Miller said. “Our field management expert has been on top of this for many weeks.”
Time not on Buccaneers’ side
A big mystery that has yet to be solved is why Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles declined to use his final timeout with about 36 seconds left in last weekend’s loss to the Lions.
Bowles was correct on Monday when explaining that had the Lions managed the clock correctly, they should have reached fourth down with about 10 seconds left, not 36.
But the Lions didn’t handle it correctly. “We should have bled it more than we did,” Lions coach Dan Campbell acknowledged. Had Bowles called time out with 36 seconds left, it would have forced the Lions to attempt a 49-yard field goal. Had the Lions missed, it would have set up the Buccaneers for one final, game-tying drive.
There appear to be two explanations: Bowles gave up and didn’t notice the Lions bungling the clock; or Bowles didn’t realize he had a timeout left. Bowles called a timeout with 3:02 left in the fourth quarter, but it was returned to the Buccaneers because a penalty was called.
Either explanation is not a great reflection on Bowles, who had a solid season but ended it on a sour note.
Extra points
One NFL coaching position that has developed a quick turnover rate is offensive coordinator. The good ones are getting hired as head coaches, and the bad ones are getting fired. Outside of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, who was hired in 2017 and calls plays, and Falcons OC Dave Ragone, who got his job in 2021 but may be out of work soon, no offensive coordinator has been in his position since before 2022. Assuming they stay in their roles next season, the Dolphins’ Frank Smith and Jaguars’ Press Taylor will be the longest-tenured OCs in the AFC as they enter their third season. In the NFC, the Giants’ Mike Kafka, the Packers’ Adam Stenavich, and the Vikings’ Wes Phillips will be the only OCs making it to their third seasons (assuming the Lions’ Ben Johnson gets the Commanders head coaching job) . . . 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings doesn’t make many friends, even on his own team. He blocked an opponent into a Gatorade jug last Saturday, and apparently is known for playing through the whistle. “It’s what he does every play out at practice,” Shanahan said. “Our defense tried to fight him all last year because they thought he was going above and beyond. The next day in the meeting I had to show them what he does every single play and say it’s not personal, this is just how he blocks.” . . . The first question to Tom Brady on his next podcast with Jim Gray needs to be why he turned down his dream opportunity to play for the 49ers this season. Brock Purdy told ESPN a couple of weeks ago that the 49ers informed him that he would be the starting quarterback this season unless they could get Brady, who was a free agent. Brady desperately wanted to play for the 49ers in 2020, but they didn’t want him. This time, the tables were turned, and Brady said no. Brady was dealing with a lot of family stuff last year related to his divorce, but I’m still surprised he turned it down. Maybe if the 49ers don’t win the Super Bowl they will try to get Brady to make a comeback in 2024.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.