Not everything improves with age. This includes the idea of committing billions to build more tunnels under Boston, known as the North South Rail Link. A new Harvard Kennedy School study impressively concludes the project would cost about the same in real dollars as its earlier 2017 study. A multibillion-dollar transportation project whose costs barely increase? That would be a first. The reality is the project doesn’t work as a linchpin of the state’s public transit system or merit the more realistic 2018 estimated project cost of more than $20 billion. Largely as a result of the 2017 Kennedy School study, MassDOT went back and did a reassessment in 2018. That sober assessment details the complexity and enormous costs involved.
The surface appeal of the Rail Link is obvious. But this latest Kennedy School study, commissioned by US Representative Seth Moulton, takes no notice of the intramural analysis that was released in 2018 by the Harvard School of Engineering. Forty-five engineering students working in three teams approached the problems of connectivity posed by the current separation of North and South stations. They detailed six cheaper transportation alternatives for future discussion; significantly, all three teams were unanimous that Rail Link is not the ideal solution to meet the stated goals of “ridership growth, increased system capacity, operational efficiencies, air quality improvements, and redevelopment opportunities.” Hmmm.
Here are some hard truths from the perspective that should count the most: Is this a transportation project that broadly benefits the ability of people to travel efficiently and safely? The failure of the rail link project to satisfy this basic standard at a reasonable cost is the real reason it never gets out of the starting gate.
More directly beneficial and necessary capital projects, which have received important and strong endorsements from Governor Maura Healey, are in the offing. That list includes the replacement of the Cape Cod bridges, expansion of regular passenger rail for the western part of the state, the Red and Blue line connector in Boston, and the fixes for the Mass. Turnpike and related rail and transit improvements needed in Allston. Notably, several of these projects have been awarded federal discretionary funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. However, the oft-cited $66 billion for rail contained in the law is for intercity service, not commuter rail, which would be the primary mode using North South Rail Link. Rightfully, the Healey administration wants to advance discussions with the US Postal Service and Amtrak to enable the essential expansion of South Station. Rail Link advocates criticize South Station by comparison, without noting that it is a project that has been permitted, with several components that have either been completed or are underway.
The public may think NSRL is simply the construction of a 1.5-mile tunnel between North and South Stations. However, to get underground at depths below the subways and the Big Dig, the tunnels must reach depths nearing 190 feet, start a mile south of South Station, and not reach the surface again until north of the Charles River — nearly four miles of new tunnels. The new underground stations cannot be built directly under North and South stations but must be located elsewhere. They would require extensive elevator and escalator banks for riders to get up to street level or make transfers to the existing subways, but only after they return to the existing North and South stations. That would be a new inconvenience , courtesy of NSRL, for passengers traveling to either North or South station.
Contrary to the latest report, construction does require disruption of existing train service, especially for those who travel through the Back Bay station. Temporary rerouting is needed for some or all Amtrak, Providence, Stoughton, and Franklin Line service into South Station. The Worcester Line and Amtrak Lakeshore Limited service west of Back Bay would also be severely limited without other viable rerouting plans, according to the 2018 MassDOT update. Upcoming West-East rail service would be similarly affected.
A glaring absence from the new Kennedy School study is that it doesn’t address what rights of way are available for the Rail Link or what they might cost. Estimates touted by Moulton seem to ignore this crucial issue.
Ironically, linking all commuter rail and Amtrak lines through a single choke point under downtown Boston poses serious system risks in the event of rising water levels or significant storm events. Climate resilience technologies and new design components add to project costs, and that discussion is nearly absent from the study despite the fact that one central feature of the project — a Central Station — is located at ground zero for the substantial waterfront challenges at Aquarium Station and Central Wharf.
The North South Rail Link was offered by many of the same advocates in the late 1980s to be part of the Big Dig. The thinking was, since we were going to open up downtown Boston, the timing was perfect and both projects had the support of then-Governor Michael Dukakis. But the state’s environmental affairs secretary turned down his own boss’s request in a critical environmental impact permit issued on Jan. 2, 1991, concluding: “this connection [the Rail Link] is at worst impossible and at best impracticable.” True words then, true words now.
State Representative William Straus is chair of the House Joint Committee on Transportation.