With President Biden having renounced reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris is obviously the strong favorite to emerge as the Democratic Party’s 2024 nominee. Biden’s recommendation will carry huge weight, the more so since he is now riding a wave of gratitude for his decision not to run again.
But Harris also has the backing of Jim Clyburn, the influential South Carolina congressman whose influence with Black voters was crucial in delivering the party’s nomination to Biden in 2020. Add in the nod of Hillary and Bill Clinton, and the path for any rival to Harris gets steeper still.
Further, she is the only candidate who could easily and immediately channel the Biden-Harris campaign war chest into funding an on-the-ground campaign effort. So though Harris may draw a challenge, it would have to be a formidable one to overcome the advantages with which she begins this truncated race for Democratic National Convention delegates.
Here’s where the more interesting maneuvering may come: Who will be the party’s vice presidential nominee? There, Electoral College calculus should figure strongly into Democratic thinking.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly
With Biden, the path to the necessary 270 electoral votes was possible but problematic — and it was hard to see Biden corralling even a single extra electoral vote beyond that. But there now may be an expand-the-map move: A ticket that pairs Harris with Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. That could bring Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, and perhaps Nevada’s six, into the Democratic column.
North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
Similarly, if North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper occupied the second spot on the ticket, it could give the party a chance to drag the Tar Heel State’s 16 electoral votes into the Democratic column. That means Democrats could win the presidency even if they lost Michigan. One advocate of a Harris-Cooper ticket has been former party chair Howard Dean.
Governors Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) and Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania)
Or the Democrats could focus on solidifying their must-have stepping-stones. Two stand outs: Pennsylvania, with 19 Electoral College votes, and Michigan, with 15. The bad news: Trump has been slightly ahead in both. The good news: Two acknowledged talents on the Democratic bench are Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, and Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania. Having either on the ticket would help solidify the Democrats’ Electoral College path.
Whitmer had previously said she wouldn’t be a candidate to lead the ticket if Biden didn’t run; whether she would accept a vice presidential ticket spot is unclear. Time was, someone would have complained that Shapiro is still in his first term as governor and doesn’t have the requisite experience.
However, in an era when Barack Obama could be elected US senator in 2004 and president in 2008, or when Trump could win the presidency without ever having served in elected office, experience obviously doesn’t matter much.
Governor Gina Raimondo (Rhode Island), Governor Phil Murphy (New Jersey), and Senator Chris Murphy (Connecticut)
Others who deserve to be in the mentioning mix: Secretary of Commerce and former two-term Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo. Her proven abilities, her moderate ideology, and her Italian heritage would make her a good candidate in key swing states.
Similarly, Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut is an able and impressive elected official, with two important arrows in his quiver: He is deeply versed in foreign policy and has demonstrated both the ability and the courage to reach across the aisle to craft bipartisan legislation.
Another talented governor whose next-door-neighbor status to Pennsylvania should give him some reach there is New Jersey’s Phil Murphy, who with his 2021 reelection became the first Democrat to serve two terms as New Jersey governor in more than four decades. Murphy has something unusual for a governor: foreign policy experience, which he obtained as Obama’s ambassador to Berlin from 2013 to 2017.
That’s hardly an exclusive list. But these are names that should figure prominently in the Democratic Party’s VP-nominee mix.
Scot Lehigh is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at scot.lehigh@globe.com. Follow him @GlobeScotLehigh.