Instant analysis from the Patriots’ 27-21 loss to the Bills:
▪ If Robert Kraft wants to move on from Bill Belichick after this season, he has several valid reasons to do so — a 4-12 record, five straight seasons with no playoff wins, making a mess of Mac Jones, and an inability to build a thriving offense. But no one can say Belichick isn’t getting the utmost effort from his players.
Let the record show that the Patriots are playing hard and showing impressive fight at the end of a lost season. They could easily pack it in and get ready for the offseason, but they won road games at Pittsburgh and Denver, and gave the Bills everything they could handle Sunday. A rash of early turnovers and a spectacular performance by the Bills’ punter were just too much to overcome.
The defense mostly played its heart out, holding the Bills to 281 yards, harassing Josh Allen, and keeping the game close despite three early turnovers deep in Patriots territory. Bailey Zappe shook off an awful start to move the ball well over the last three quarters and make the Bills nervous. New faces such as Kevin Harris and Jalen Reagor stepped up to make big plays.
Patriots fans used to scoff at moral victories, but in a season with few positives, the fact their team is playing hard with nothing to gain is still impressive. No one has quit on Belichick.
▪ You can’t simply brush away four turnovers in 16 plays in the first half, including three interceptions by Zappe, but I’m more impressed with how Zappe responded, especially in a tough environment. He started 3 for 9 for 19 yards and three interceptions, and finished 13 of 17 for 190 yards. Zappe shook off the pick-6 to Rasul Douglas — which was likely Reagor’s fault for missing the adjustment at the line — and promptly led a 75-yard touchdown drive. In the fourth quarter, Zappe directed an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it a one-score game, tying for the Patriots’ second-longest drive of the season.
Zappe did take three sacks, and two of those interceptions were on him, but otherwise he escaped the rush well, kept his eyes downfield, and made some big throws. Zappe also showed good scrambling ability, first with a 17-yard touchdown run, then with another 18-yard scamper.
Zappe is 2-3 this year as a starter and 4-3 overall, and his confidence and poise are noticeably improving with each start. Sunday was yet another performance that makes it fair to wonder what the Patriots’ record would have been had they turned sooner from Mac Jones to Zappe — 7-9? 8-8? They certainly wouldn’t be eliminated from the playoffs right now, nor would there be much talk about Belichick’s job security.
▪ With Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne and JuJu Smith-Schuster out, the Patriots found a few unexpected sparks. Running back Harris rumbled 48 yards on a screen pass, and had a nice 15-yard run. Reagor caught a 39-yarder over his shoulder, in addition to his 98-yard kickoff return touchdown. Mike Gesicki had a few big catches to move the chains. Demario Douglas had a big 17-yard gain to get the Patriots in range for their final touchdown.
This was, on paper, arguably the worst group of skill players in the NFL on Sunday, yet they played fairly well.
▪ The Patriots’ defense was inside the Bills’ heads. Allen started 3-for-13 passing, and when he wasn’t sailing his throws or missing Stefon Diggs on a deep ball, his receivers were making brutal drops — four in the first half alone. The Bills should have blown out the Patriots when winning the turnover battle, 4-1, but the Patriots’ defense admirably held Buffalo to just 13 points off those three deep turnovers, and for the game to a paltry 4.1 yards per play.
The dam broke just a couple of times — early in the third quarter, when a 51-yard pass to Dalton Kincaid set up the Bills’ final touchdown, and on the final drive of the game, when the Patriots couldn’t get a stop for their offense. After being shredded by Allen for years, the Patriots have finally learned how to defend him — but don’t have the offense to keep up that end of the bargain.
▪ Allen completed just 15 of 30 passes for 169 yards and an interception, plus 44 yards rushing. His accuracy was off, his decision-making was questionable, and he was reckless with the football, lucky he didn’t fumble a couple of times.
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey earlier this season, but it’s starting to look like Allen’s inconsistent play is at least equally responsible for the Bills’ inconsistent offense.
▪ The Patriots have made far more negative than positive plays on special teams, so it was great to see Reagor start the game with a 98-yard touchdown, just the fourth kickoff return touchdown in the NFL this season and the Patriots’ first since 2018 (Cordarrelle Patterson).
But the good vibes didn’t last long. Kicker Chad Ryland hooked one badly left from 47 yards, then missed one wide right from 53 that was negated by a delay of game penalty (in which the Patriots weren’t close to getting the snap off in time). Ryland is just 15 of 24 on field goals (62.5 percent), and any momentum created by last week’s game-winning kick at Denver has dissipated.
▪ One special teamer who thrived was Bills punter Sam Martin. He punted six times, allowed just 2 return yards, and dropped all six punts inside the 20, including punts that were downed at the 8-, 5- and 3-yard lines. Martin was arguably the player of the day for the Bills, as the Patriots weren’t able to generate much offense when pinned deep in their territory.
Read more about the Patriots’ loss to the Bills
- Bills 27, Patriots 21: Bailey Zappe throws 3 INTs as New England falls to 4-12
- Dan Shaughnessy: Facing the toughest decision of his stewardship, what will Patriots owner Bob Kraft do with Bill Belichick?
- Bill Belichick avoids a question about his future, again, but he can’t dodge it for much longer
- Patriots kicker Chad Ryland is off the mark again, and he ackowledges his misses after loss to Bills
- ‘You can’t do that:’ What Patriots center David Andrews had to say after loss to Bills
- ‘Trust me, I’ll get better:’ What Patriots QB Bailey Zappe said after throwing three picks in loss to Bills
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.